The present “deal” doesn’t seem satisfactory anymore. What would a UK-minus-Scotland-and-outside-of-the-EU with a very much reduced financial sector look like? What kind of deal would the UK be able to maintain with the EU? With whom would it play? The EFTA again? If the UK chooses to stay in the EU, on which basis would it do so? Here to, the plebiscite needs to be renegotiated. Banks are starting to elaborate scenarios of relocation outside of the City (Dublin? Paris?) to remain in the EU and why, by the same token, set foot in the Eurozone. Impacts would be difficult to assess because there would be direct and indirect (domino) effects. Failure to do so could lead to a collapse internally (SCOTIND) and externally (BREXIT). The capacity of UK people and decision makers to renew the plebiscite of the UK as a political entity (internally) and of the UK as part of a bigger political entity (externally – with the EU) is a very important step in order to prevent SCOTIND and BREXIT. This daily plebiscite is put in question at the moment in the UK. As Renan wrote in Qu’est-ce qu’une nation? a nation is a daily plebiscite. Although it is difficult to say how the SCOTIND ( -) ) referendum will impact on the BREXIT issue, this is certainly a part of the equation. Indeed, taken together, both issues show that the UK as a political unit is undergoing a phase of extreme turbulence where its identity and cohesion is challenged internally (who wants to “play” the UK “game”?) and externally (with whom does the UK want to “play” a “bigger game”?). In other words, I would not separate this from next week’s referendum on the Scottish independence. Regarding the impact of a BREXIT on the UK and the likelihood of it, it seems to me that we first need to grasp a bigger/broader picture: the UK, as a state, is in a very difficult and challenging phase of its history.
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